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Sub-Saharan Africa Worries Over the Youth
Cosmas Butunyi, The East African
October 11 2010
Sub-Saharan Africa
As the rest of the world grapples with its largely elderly population and the accompanying pension burden, sub-Saharan Africa has its unemployed youth to worry about.
According to the Population Reference Bureau, for every person over 65 in sub-Saharan Africa, there are at least 10 aged between 15 and 65.
This is a stark contrast to countries like Japan that have one retiree for every three working persons in their populations.
“This jeopardizes pension guarantees and long-term healthcare programmes for the elderly,” said the Population Research Bureau.
With these ageing populations, it is projected that spending on entitlement programmes such as social security and medicare in the US will rise from the current 8.4 per cent of the gross domestic product to 12.5 per cent in 2030.
East Africa, which has an average 15 working-age adults for every elderly person of 65 and above, should then be a pleasant place for the elderly, where they retire secure in the knowledge that there are many youth in the workforce to support them in their sunset years.
However, the East African Community countries lack concrete state-run social security programmes for the elderly, who mostly end up depending on their children.
Most African counties have a low life expectancy, in some as low as 47 years, a trend that is attributed to disease, violence and malnutrition among other factors.
Statistics from the UN indicate that Tanzania has the highest life expectancy in the region, standing at 57 years for men and 59 for women respectively; followed by Kenya at 56 and 57 respectively; and Uganda at 55 and 56.
In Burundi, men are expected to live to the age of 51, while women could live up to 54.
Rwanda has the lowest life expectancy at 50 for men and 54 for women.
Population Trends
According to the Population Research Bureau president Bill Butz, two different population trends describe the developed and developing worlds.
“Chronically low birth rates in developed countries are beginning to challenge the health and financial security of their elderly while the developing countries are adding over 80 million to the population every year and the poorest of those countries are adding 20 million, exacerbating poverty and threatening the environment,” Mr Butz said.
Over the years, the average worldwide ratio of elderly persons to the working age, which is considered a measure of the levels of potential social support available for the elderly, has been on the decline.
From 12 persons of working age for every person aged 65 or older in 1950, there are only nine this year. This figure is expected to slide even further to four by 2050.
The world’s population at 6.9 billion had a huge chunk of the growth recorded in developing countries, whereas populations in developed countries, estimated at 1.2 billion people, continue to age as the numbers of those of working age dwindle.
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