Rarely has such good news produced so much bad press. Yet the fact
that people in the developed world are living longer and that life
expectancy is projected to increase further still, has been nothing
but bad news for pensions.
The
problem is that many corporate pension plans across the US and Europe
are afflicted by many of the same problems that plague state-funded
systems there, all facing significant funding gaps as their outgoings
increase and fresh contributions wane.
Legislation
and accounting rule changes meant to address the issue in the
US
are set to cause a financial shake-up. First, making corporations
account properly for their pension gaps threatens to wipe a collective
$243bn (£123bn, €182bn) off shareholder equity for companies in the
S&P 500 index. Second, a new law requiring pension funds to become
fully funded is set to cause large financial flows from stock to bond
markets, similarly to what happened after such a reform in the
UK
in the mid-1990s.
But
there is broad agreement that something must be done. Analysts
estimate that
US
corporate pension plans are underfunded by about $450bn. And of the
360 companies in the S&P 500 index that have pension schemes, 297
will be underfunded at the end of this year.
The
federal Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, which insures corporate
pension plans if the sponsoring company is unable to meet its
commitments, is itself underfunded by more than $18bn.
By
2030 - as
America
's baby-boomer generation enjoys its retirement - the
US
economy will have to support twice the current number of retirees,
with only 18 per cent more workers.
Dallas
Salisbury, president of the Employee Benefit Research Institute,
argues that these demographic shifts have made the
US
pensions system "functionally bankrupt". This means retirees
with limited savings of their own and facing mounting healthcare costs
could outlive their means - or at least the investments that are
supposed to pay their pensions.
In
August, President George W. Bush signed into law his administration's
first attempt to tackle the problem. After months of negotiation in
Congress, the White House described the 400-page Pension Protection
Act as "the most sweeping reform of
America
's pension laws in over 30 years".
Key
changes in the act include the requirement that pension plans achieve
fully-funded status by 2011. They will also have to increase
substantially their insurance payments to the PBGC.
Significantly
underfunded plans will have to pay higher premiums but will be given
more time to achieve full funding. The airline industry, for example,
will have 17 years to balance its pension books.
Pension
plans will also have to use more conservative assumptions when putting
a value on their assets and liabilities - the investments they have in
the coffer, versus the amount they expect to spend supporting
pensioners.
Further
changes followed from the
US
accounting rule-making body at the end of September. The Financial
Accounting Standards Board mandated that companies report the funding
status of pensions and other post-retirement benefits such as
healthcare directly on their balance sheets, with effect from year-end
earnings reports for 2006. Such information was previously relegated
to the small print of corporate earnings statements.
Analysts
at Merrill Lynch estimate that the total pension deficit set to appear
on the balance sheets of S&P 500 companies at year-end will be
about $87bn. (The inclusion of other post-retirement benefits widens
the funding gap by a further $310bn.)
Previous
accounting rules allowed many of these underfunded plans to appear
overfunded, to the tune of about $156bn. Replacing this surplus with
the true $87bn deficit will result in a $243bn reduction to
shareholders' equity for S&P 500 companies at the end of 2006.
This
means that book equity for the S&P 500 will decline by about 6 per
cent. And for some companies with big defined-benefit pension plans -
General Motors, for example - book equity will be wiped out.
While
this is an accounting change rather than a fundamental shift in the
economics of the company, it has the potential to create confusion
over financial ratios that are sometimes referred to in loan
agreements and elsewhere. GM has tried to prepare the market for this
change and said none of its debt will be affected.
The
justification for the upheaval is the greater reporting accuracy the
new rules are intended to deliver. William O'Donnell, strategist at
UBS, says: "One primary goal of the recently announced
legislative and accounting changes for pensions is that they overlay a
new transparency on to pension accounting - which creates a new source
of volatility for corporate balance sheets."
This
could change the behaviour of pension plan managers. Analysts at UBS,
the investment bank, estimate that pension reforms and demographics
could cause managers to shift up to $300bn out of stocks and into more
stable long-term assets such as bonds. This is based on the assumption
that pensions would go from a traditional 60-40 ratio of equities to
bonds to a 40-60 split favouring bonds.
"Any
dramatic shift in pension asset and liability management could have
some measurable influence on the direction of
US
[interest] rates, the path of credit spreads and the slope of the
yield curve," says Mr O'Donnell.
This
broad shift has occurred in many countries which have had similar
reforms. In the
UK
, pension funding reform legislation provided pension schemes with a
strong incentive to hold long-dated government bonds. Between 1994 and
mid-2000, pension funds sold £63bn ($125bn, €94bn) of equities and
bought £51bn of bonds, at a time when equity markets were rising. Due
to the flow of funds into long-term bonds, short-term interest rates
were higher than long-term rates in the
UK
.
A
question for the debt markets is whether this effect helps explain the
current partial inversion of the
US
yield curve. But Brian Carlin, global head of fixed-income trading at
JPMorgan Private Bank, argues that while the impact of pension reform
will be felt in US debt markets, it will be far less pronounced than
it was in the
UK
.
"There
will be a substantial shift into fixed-income but the size and depth
of the US market, as well as a longer time-frame for underfunded plans
to fund their deficits, mean that the markets should be able to absorb
it gradually," he says.